There has been a lot of excitement over the Moses Kuria presidential “poll”. He posted his purported findings on his social media pages.
According to him, the 2022 presidential election is a two-horse race between ODM leader Raila Odinga and UDA’s William Ruto. Moses Kuria projects that Raila Odinga will beat his opponent in the first round.
Raila is likely to get 8.1 million votes against Ruto’s 7.4 million. Mount Kenya and Rift Valley regions are likely to sway heavily towards the man from Sugoi. Nyanza, Western and Nairobi regions will favour the former prime minister.
Unfortunately, we are in that crazy political seasons when every quack with Ms Excel pie chart skills will try to pass it as survey. This is simply unacceptable.
A statistical poll must have a primary sampling unit which represents the population under survey. In the Moses Kuria presidential poll, he uses an approximation of few major tribal numbers, presumably from Census instead of IEBC County’s figures.
He then assigns percentages without even defining the variables. Honestly, what he attached is nothing more than a bunch of assumptions. Have a look at a screenshot of what he posted below;
Kenyans must understand that polling is a science with clearly defined methodologies. Pollsters extrapolate the generalities within specified confidence intervals.
Polls are not a pastime for recuperating burn victims idling in their electric blankets. It takes serious scientific work with professional personnel. Most of the figures presented by Kuria make little sense.
For instance, any professional pollster will find it hard to give William Ruto anything beyond 7 million votes. Where will all those votes come from?
In the near future, serious pollsters will break the numbers down county by county. Political realignments will also take centre stage as from January. It is just too soon to discuss the outcome of the 2022 presidential elections.